About Us
A firm built on the conviction that independent thinking is the most valuable asset in a complex world.
Our Story
Founded on Conviction
Contrarian Advisory and Trading FZCO was established in Dubai's DMCC with a clear purpose: to provide geopolitical risk analysis and strategic counsel that is genuinely independent, intellectually rigorous, and practically useful.
We recognised that too much of the advisory landscape is shaped by consensus thinking — recycled narratives, institutional bias, and analysis that tells clients what they want to hear rather than what they need to know.
Our firm takes a different approach. We question prevailing assumptions, examine issues from multiple perspectives, and deliver assessments that are honest, balanced, and grounded in how the world actually works.
Leadership
Our Founder
Jean-Claude Knebeler
Founder & Managing Director
Hong Kong SAR · Dubai · Luxembourg
Jean-Claude Knebeler brings over two decades of experience at the intersection of diplomacy, international trade, and geopolitical strategy. A career diplomat who served as Luxembourg's Ambassador to the Russian Federation and Consul General in New York, he has operated at the highest levels of government-to-government engagement across some of the world's most consequential markets.
His diplomatic career took him from New York — where he served as Consul General and led Luxembourg's trade and investment promotion efforts in the United States — to Moscow, where he served as Ambassador of Luxembourg to the Russian Federation, also accredited to Kazakhstan and Belarus. His tenure in Moscow coincided with a period of significant tension in EU-Russia relations, giving him first-hand insight into the dynamics of great power competition and their consequences for trade and investment. Prior to his ambassadorial appointments, he served as Director-General for Trade and Investment Promotion at Luxembourg's Ministry of the Economy and Foreign Trade, shaping national economic development strategy for nearly a decade.
This practitioner's understanding of how states, markets, and power interact is what distinguishes Contrarian Advisory. Jean-Claude's analysis is not drawn from textbooks or think-tank orthodoxies; it is informed by direct experience of statecraft, commercial diplomacy, and the realities of operating across jurisdictions from the Gulf to Greater China.
Today, in addition to leading Contrarian Advisory, he serves as an Independent Non-Executive Director for regulated financial services firms and investment funds in Hong Kong and Europe, and holds an SFC licence as a Responsible Officer in Hong Kong. He is a Fellow of the Hong Kong Institute of Directors and a member of the GCC Board Directors' Institute.
Diplomatic & Government Career
Ambassador of Luxembourg to the Russian Federation
Based in Moscow; also accredited to Kazakhstan and Belarus
Consul General of Luxembourg, New York
Executive Director, Luxembourg Trade & Investment Office
Director-General for Trade & Investment Promotion
Ministry of the Economy & Foreign Trade, Luxembourg
Education
Diploma for Senior Managers in Government
Harvard University, J.F. Kennedy School
Post-Graduate Diploma in Public Administration
École Nationale d'Administration, France
BSc (Hons.) Government & Law
London School of Economics
Languages
English, French, German, Luxembourgish, Russian
Professional Affiliations
Fellow, Hong Kong Institute of Directors
Member, GCC Board Directors' Institute
Member, Luxembourg Institute of Directors
Our Principles
What Guides Our Work
Independence
We are not beholden to any government, institution, or ideology. Our analysis serves our clients alone, free from the distortions of political alignment or institutional groupthink.
Realism
We see the world as it is, not as we might wish it to be. Our work is grounded in a realist understanding of international relations — power, interests, and the pragmatic calculus of statecraft.
Discretion
Our clients operate in sensitive environments. We treat every engagement with the confidentiality and professionalism it demands. Trust is the foundation of everything we do.
Based in Dubai
Dubai sits at the intersection of Europe, Asia, and Africa — a natural vantage point for understanding global dynamics. As a DMCC-registered firm, we operate from one of the world's most connected and commercially vibrant free zones.
This position gives us proximity to the markets, governments, and decision-makers that shape the geopolitical landscape — from the Gulf and the wider Middle East to South and East Asia.